The risk know-how framework sets out what is needed to make sense of risk. It has been developed through discussions and interactions with communities and risk experts to facilitate those decisions.
Risk know-how in a community means we can:
- Ask questions about specific risks
- Find suitable and reliable risk information
- Understand how the framing of the information can be manipulated
- Understand information about the magnitude of a risk and the effectiveness of a response
- Not be surprised by the consequences of a decision made regarding risks
- Make reasonable comparisons between the potential benefits and harms of acting or not acting – understanding the trade-offs
- Appreciate the danger of following information that confirms what we prefer or believe without challenging it
- Be aware that the available risk information can change, and therefore decisions based on it can change too
- Respect that every person has unique risk and benefit trade-offs, and not everyone has the opportunity to act upon risks
From Risk know-how practitioners
“I want to encourage information literacy – to interrogate assumptions about what is reliable. We start with sources from local, state or regional governments, then go to national governments and international agencies, […] after that we explore the grey literature. I also recommend tertiary information, […] statistics databases that provide and aggregate raw data.”
Chandler Christoffel, User Experience Librarian, USA
“Sometimes you face the same conditions but make different decisions because of how young the group is, [and] how large the group is. What feels like the right decision one day might feel too risky a different day.”
Sarah Whitaker, Forest Kindergarten Director, USA
“Fishermen will go out to sea even with a cyclone or a storm approaching because the risk of not catching fish and being able to eat feels more present. “
Sazedul Hoque, Researcher in Food Safety and Fisheries Technology, Bangladesh
To make sense of risks in real issues we need to:
Clarify the scope of the risk
Outcomes and consequences
Risk of what?
Infection, hospitalization, dying?
Risk factors and hazards
What may be contributing to the risk?
Overfishing or a sudden sea temperature spike?
Population
Who or what could be affected by that risk?
All children or under 5-year-olds?
Period of time and cumulative risks
What’s the period of time of the estimated risk?
One day, one year, a lifetime?
Understand the numbers
Absolute and relative risks
Differentiate between absolute and relative risks
“Contraceptive pills ‘double the risk’ of blood clots.” But what was the risk to start off?
Expected frequencies and Percentages
Realise that the way probability is expressed can impact our perception of risk
Would you be more inclined to use a dating app if you heard 1 out of 5 couples succeed, or another where 20% does? Same odds, different feel!
Denominator neglect
Don’t just count the incidents
“Titan submarine is safer than flying in a helicopter,” boasted the submarine’s creator short before it tragically imploded. But did he consider how many people choose each adventure?
Very big and very small numbers
Interpret very big and very small numbers
0.1% might feel too little, 8 million might feel too big, and still refer to the same thing
Comparisons and context
Be aware of comparisons and context
A construction company is the safest in the area but could still be very dangerous by global standards – don’t be mislead by comparisons!
Averages and Recurrent intervals
Remember what averages can ‘hide’
If half a country faces droughts and the other half floods on average rainfall is ‘as expected’
Single event probabilities
Grasp what ‘chance’ means for one-time events
A 30% chance of rain doesn’t mean 30% of the day is wet
Conditional probabilities
Recognise when one number needs another: conditional probabilities
You receive a bomb threat alert at 2:30am. Given the alert, and considering past system glitches, what’s the real probability it’s an actual threat?
Think beyond the numbers
Correlation vs. causation
Is it a correlation or causation?
More car accidents occur during hot days but does the heat directly cause the accidents?
Adjusting
If a risk was ‘adjusted’, what does that mean?
At first glance, it appeared that social media could enhance happiness. But after adjusting for exercise and other variables, it’s actually the opposite effect.
Researchers found social media use is linked to depression after ‘adjusting’ for age, family income, exercise and drug use. This means they’ve tried to remove the influence of these other factors to focus solely on the impact of social media. Adjusting is helpful, but it’s not definitive proof of causation, as there are always things we might not know or haven’t measured.
Thresholds
What does ‘safe’ or ‘unsafe’ mean?
Words mean different things to different people
A river in a community faced lead contamination. Authorities declared the water ‘unsafe’ for consumption. Later they announce it’s now ‘safe.’ But what defines safe or unsafe?
Uncertainty
Consider uncertainty, don’t just avoid it
Should mariners cancel their routes after a typhoon warning? Making a decision requires addressing all uncertainties involved.
Balanced information, False balance and Trade-offs
Have all potential benefits and harms been taken into account?
There are plans to build a nuclear energy plan in a community. Some love the idea of promoting a cleaner atmosphere , but others are concerned about accidents and waste.
RISK TO INDIVIDUALS AND RISK TO POPULATIONS
What’s the difference between risk to individuals and risk to populations?
There are 100 car accidents per day in route Z. But how should a daily commuter make sense of this?
Cognitive bias and Patterns in randomness
You can’t rely on your instincts
Just because it hasn’t happened, it doesn’t mean it won’t. And just because you see a pattern, it doesn’t mean it’s real.
Quality of evidence
How good is the quality of the evidence and can I rely on it?
A resort over mangroves, backed by a study claiming no harm to wildlife. But who conducted the study and how?